參選爆炸,幾可成為2016年立法會選舉直選的最大特色,84張名單,搶奪35個席位,其中新界東戰況尤其激烈,22張名單爭逐9個議席。不論是建制還是泛民核心人士,都表示這次是1991年香港立法局引入分區直選議席後,最激烈、最難打、最難確定戰績的一場選戰。
政黨世代交替,新的本土派旗幟冒升,管治集團本來希望借泛民在2015年6月否決特首2017年直選方案,大做文章,直搗2015年底的區議會選舉及2016年是次立法會選舉,未料建制派投票「甩轆」,自作聰明離開議場沒有投票,使是項策略功敗垂成,讓泛民重奪設定選戰議題的位置,與離心的建制派自由黨合作,將議題轉向ABC(Anyone but CY),讓建制派候選人如何回應與民望低迷的特首梁振英的關係,是割蓆還是友好,陷入兩難。
政治,一天便可以大變,隨著港獨聲音發飆,加上選舉委員會要求候選人簽訂「確認書」,社會反彈情緒隨即讓是次選舉加上一項重要議題──港獨、自決、自治等,有評論者甚至稱是次選舉為香港的「統獨公投」。
在北京中央眼中,主張符合所謂國際標準的雙普選,即選民不經篩選的被提名權,讓香港變成一個接近自主的政治實體,已是變相港獨。北京未敢將所有要求雙普選的泛民定性為港獨,但明言港獨者,卻是大是大非的罪衍。北京自知借「確認書」篩選的制度不利於建制派候選人,但經過衡量,為了避免港獨聲浪在選舉過程發飆產生廣泛的思潮動員,仍然孤注一擲,以大局思維,透過確認書和拒絕免費郵寄選舉信函的方式,企圖降低港獨在選舉過程中的聲浪。
本屆立法會選舉的分區議席,與上一屆即2012年一樣,總數同為35席,共達84張名單角逐,但有鑒於人口改變,選區劃界稍作調整,港島區減一席,九龍西則增加一席。
有指年輕選民尤其是18-25歲年齡層選民會偏向激進泛民及本土派,然而根據選舉事務6月1日公布的最新選民登記冊數字,2016年載有約377萬名選民,的確較上屆立法會選舉增加近30萬人,創下歷年登記選民新高,其中新登記選民達到17萬,被稱為首投族,然而香港這首投族,泛指被首次登記選民,包括年老選民,與台灣首投族所指的20歲首投族,不可同日而語。且在所有年齡層中,以66-70歲選民數增幅最高達60%,新登記選民中,只有約9萬人是18-35歲人士。
香港分區直選中泛民與建制派的得票率長期為6:4,上屆2012年此消彼長為5.5:4.5,這次會有怎樣的變化?且非建製又割裂成泛民與本土派趨向零碎化,所得票數與所得席位是否正比,也會對香港未來政治生態的發展帶來影響。
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